WST Podcast (2/2/11) Part 1

Duration: 16:21

Topics:

• Story lines preceding the Super Bowl

• Is Aaron Rodgers to blame for the team photo/Twitter controversy

• Defensive Player of the Year award– Should Clay Mathews have won the award?

5 NFL teams play in true domes. They are Atlanta, New Orleans, Saint Louis, Minnesota, and Detroit. Four more teams have retractable roofs in Houston, Arizona, Indianapolis, and Dallas. Let’s regard them all as dome teams for the sake of this piece, because it’s really the playing surface that matters. Turfs and synthetic composite fields represent ideal conditions for out-of-the-gate speed, and on-a-dime cuts, two things that make the Packers offense especially dangerous. And after all, quarterback Aaron Rodgers gets to wear his favorite shoes, or so he says. But how will Aaron Rodgers stack up against Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethisberger on the turf down in Jerry’s World, Texas? My brother Chris gets the credit for this topic. He wondered how each QB fared in Domed stadiums period. I found the topic interesting enough to do a little research, and crunch a few numbers. One thing that was evident right away, is that the NFC has far more domes, and thus Aaron Rodgers has a much higher volume of dome games. But, coincidentally, In Roethlisberger’s 7 years as a starter compared to 3 years for Rodgers, both QB’s have started exactly 12 dome games including the postseason. One notable nugget is that 2 of Big Ben’s 12 dome games have been Super Bowls victories.

The first thing that I noticed after doing the math, was that Roethlisberger’s average QB rating is higher, despite being inferior to Rodgers in all relevant statistical categories. Big Ben owes this to the fact that he scored a perfect 158.3 QB rating in one of his 12 games, and also posted ratings of 147.4 and 139.8. In general, Rodgers has been more efficient, picking up more valuable yardage, throwing touchdowns and not turning the ball over. This can be said not just in domes, but really in general when comparing the two QB’s. But Roethlisberger is not a numbers guy anyway. Instead, he possesses that Favre-esque quality of refusing to go down, extending the play, and rifling the ball downfield for big gains. Unfortunately, this doesn’t always make a pretty chart.

Given this information, I see the advantage going to Green Bay. With those speedy Packers receivers traversing that perfect turf, Aaron Rodgers will be the efficient scoring machine he has proven to be in dome situations. It will be paramount for Green Bays sub-happy defense to keep Roethlisberger confused, and neutralize the down-field threat. Shrinking the field will keep Big Ben under control.

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WST Podcast 1.24.11 (Packer Section)

Duration: 16:11

Topics:

• The WiscoSportsTalk Crew is joined by Dave from SteelersDepot.com and the Terrible Podcast.

• Dave and the WST guys talk about the confidence level of the Packer and Steeler faithful.

• Dave and the guys break down the weaknesses of their respective teams.

• Predictions for the big game.

Offensively, Green Bay seems to be peaking at the perfect time. It is certainly no coincidence that this surge comes with the emergence of rookie RB James Starks. Remember, Starks sat out most of the year on the PUP list. Defenses have precious little film on a back who is proving to be up to the NFL task. With Starks earning respect from the opposing defense, QB Aaron Rodgers was able to unleash an aerial onslaught that kept Atlanta guessing, and largely off-balance. Starks gained only 66 yards on 25 carries, but the workload he shouldered goes beyond those numbers. With the Falcons defense unsure of the Packers new rookie rusher, Aaron Rodgers exploited their pause to the tune of 31/36 comp/att, 366 yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Statistically, a better playoff performance cannot reasonably be achieved. The words are “Sliced” and “diced,” as Packers LB Clay Matthews quipped in a post-game interview. Rodgers was inclusive, spreading the ball out to WR’s Jennings, Nelson, Driver, and Jones for 101, 79, 76, and 75 yards respectively. Both Nelson and Jones nabbed TD catches, as did halfback/fullback, and local folk hero, John Kuhn, who rushed for a score as well. The real story here was 3rd tier man James Jones who, having struggled with slippery hands in pressure situations, came up big with skilled catches in this big game. Some credit his mysterious new gloves, which are bright yellow, shiny, and frankly look like props from Who Framed Roger Rabbit. But hey, facts are facts, and the new gloves seem to work.

Defensively, the Packers handled their business like a team on a mission. Avenging their week 12 loss to the Falcons may not have been a public motivator, but defensive coordinator Dom Capers did post some inspirational bulletin board material for the defensive squad. A Falcon player used some choice words when describing the Packers defense to a local newspaper. The word Capers emphasized was “soft.” If the opposite of soft is hard, it’s fair to say Green Bay’s defense played hard, limiting Falcons RB Michael Turner to just 39 yards. Because the Packers were able to build and sustain a lead, Turner saw the ball just 10 times, with QB Matt Ryan electing to pass more often than not. In fact, Ryan’s 20/29 comp/att, and Turner’s 10 carries for 39 yards, puts the total offensive plays for the Falcons 2 main players, at a meager 39 opportunities. The defense stood strong, and got off the field usually within 3 minutes of game time. Drive for drive, here’s how the Packers defense performed – Punt, TD, Interception, Interception, Punt, TD, Fumble, Fumble, Punt. It’s hard to argue with results. Green Bay limited Matt Ryan to just 186 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Both interceptions were claimed by CB Tramon Williams, who ran one back for a 70 yard pick six. The Packers held WR Roddy White to just 57 yards on 6 catches, but perhaps more importantly, they also kept TE Tony Gonzalez off the stat sheet with no meaningful yardage. Called soft, played hard.

Special teams was a nightmare. In a closer game, we’d not soon forget that Atlanta ran a kickoff back for a touchdown. This is an automatic fail. On special teams, the most basic goal for the kicking team is to keep the receiving team from scoring. Simple. On the plus side, Green Bay never punted, and punter Tim Masthay was content spending the whole game on the sideline getting a massage and a cucumber facial.

The cumulative grade for this game is a solid B. The offense is clicking, the defense is stout, but special teams made critical errors. It’s easy to ignore these mistakes when the team wins by 27 points, but it’s important to note the increased magnitude these flubs can have in the playoffs.

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WST Podcast 1.18.11 Part 1

Duration: 21:45

Topics:

• A look back at Aaron Rodgers and Packers’ perfect performance in Atlanta last Saturday.
• Packers vs Bears NFC Championship preview

• What factors are key to a Packers victory?

• What match-ups will be key?

• Is Soldier Field’s poor condition a cause for concern?

Howdy everyone.  Glad to be back after making an extremely long trek out to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl.  Not the best outcome, obviously, but I’ll never forget the experience.  Thanks to everyone who helped make it an incredible time.

Now, onto my picks…

Green Bay at Atlanta (Saturday, 7pm central, FOX)

Let’s be honest, it’s very hard for me to pick against the Packers.  The same goes for this week, where I expect the Packers to avenge their loss earlier this season to Atlanta with a close win on Saturday.

When these teams met on Nov.28th, it became painfully obvious that whoever had the ball last was going to win the game.  It also became obvious after the game that the Falcons had a certain advantage when it came to challenging calls on the field (I’m looking at you, Tony Gonzalez).

The Falcons are undeniably great at the Georgia Dome, where they have a boisterous crowd and a forgiving playing surface.  But this time around, the Packers have a legit run game, not the 2 yards per carry run game that Atlanta saw earlier this season.  If James Starks can carry the load like he did last week against Philly, the Packers should be able to play-action their way to the NFC Championship.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Matt Ryan will be a quarterback matchup that fans are going to hear about for the next decade, so we better get used to it.  Rodgers almost single handedly won the game for the Packers earlier this season, but I don’t see him needing to carry the load as much this time around.

Come game time, Atlanta will have had 14 days off, whereas the Packers will have only had 6.  Some might see that as an advantage for the Falcons, but I like the Packers ride their momentum from last week to a victory.

Final Score: Packers 35, Falcons 21

QB Stat Line: Rodgers: 250 yards passing, 2 TD’s, 1 INT// Ryan: 310 yards passing, 3 TD’s, 1 INT

RB Stat Line: Starks: 80 yards rushing, 1 TD// Turner: 75 yards rushing, 0 TD’s

Seattle at Chicago (Sunday, 12pm central, FOX)

Seattle is undeniably a great playoff story.  Their triumphant victory last week over New Orleans, coupled with an incredible game-ending run by Marshawn Lynch, made for incredible television.  Years from now historians and NFL Films will remember it as one of the all-time great Wild Card weekend showdowns, and Saints fans will still be grumbling about how a 7-9 team was awarded a home game.

But that’s where the improbable run will end.  Chicago’s defense is too good to allow as many points as the Saints did, and if Seattle gets down by too many on the road, they’ll simply say “at least we beat New Orleans” and head back out west.

Yes, the Seahawks did manage to beat Chicago this past October at Soldier Field, when the Bears offensive line allowed Jay Cutler to be sacked six times during the game.  Since then, the Bears o-line has vastly improved, and with a solid run game lead by Matt Forte, the Bears should be able to control the time of possession and thus, the game.

However, I don’t expect a blowout. Keep in mind that the Seahawks are still riding a very emotional high from last weekend, and they could definitely use that to their advantage if the Bears (specifically Jay Cutler) get flustered early in the game.  The way the Seahawks win this game is the same way the Bears have managed to win games the past couple seasons: force turnovers, have a few bounces go your way, and capitalize with a touchdown here and there.

Being a Packer fan, it’s difficult for me to pick the Bears in a game I so desperately would love to see them lose.  So let’s say I think Chicago will win, but I’m really pulling for Seattle.

Final Score: Bears 24, Seahawks 14

QB Stat Line: Cutler: 224 yards passing, 2 TD’s, 1 INT//Hasselbeck: 200 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT

RB Stat Line: Forte: 100 yards rushing, 1 TD//Lynch: 90 yards rushing, 1 TD

Stay tuned for my AFC Divisional Playoff predictions coming tomorrow!

WST Podcast 1.13.11

Duration: 28:35

Topics:

• The guys break down the good and the bad against the Eagles last weekend.

• Can/will James Starks repeat last weeks’ performance?

• Preview of the Packers v.s. Falcons Divisional playoff game.

• Key match-ups to watch for.

• Are Wisconsin sports fans the most knowledgable fans in America? T  he way they question Mike McCarthy’s decsions would suggest otherwise…
• Score predictions.

WST Podcast 1.7.11 Part 2

Duration: 17:15

Topics:

• Packers v.s Eagles preview

• What is the key to stopping Vick and the Eagles?

• What is the Packers’ X factor against the Eagles?

WST Podcast 1.7.11 Part 3

Duration: 14.32

Topics:

• NFC Playoff preview

• AFC Playoff preview

NFC CLINCHED:

• Chicago, NFC North and a first-round bye
• Philadelphia, NFC East
• Atlanta, playoff spot
• New Orleans, playoff spot

NFC ELIMINATED:

• Arizona
• Carolina
• Dallas
• Detroit
• Minnesota
• San Francisco
• Washington

GREEN BAY – Clinches a playoff spot with:

1) Win OR

2) Tie and N.Y. Giants loss or tie and Tampa Bay loss or tie OR

3) N.Y. Giants loss and Tampa Bay loss

ATLANTA – Clinches NFC South and a first-round bye with:

1) Win or tie OR

2) New Orleans loss or tie

- Clinches homefield advantage with:

1) Win or tie OR

2) New Orleans loss or tie and Chicago loss or tie

CHICAGO – Clinched the NFC North and a first-round bye and clinches homefield advantage with:

1) Win and Atlanta loss and New Orleans loss or tie

NEW ORLEANS – Clinches the NFC South and homefield advantage with:

1) Win and Atlanta loss

NEW YORK GIANTS – Clinch a playoff spot with:

1) Win and Green Bay loss or tie OR

2) Tie and Green Bay loss and Tampa Bay loss or tie

TAMPA BAY – Clinches a playoff spot with:

1) Win and N.Y. Giants loss or tie and Green Bay loss or tie OR

2) Tie and N.Y. Giants loss and Green Bay loss

ST. LOUIS – Clinches NFC West with:

1) Win or tie

SEATTLE – Clinches NFC West with:

1) Win

AFC CLINCHED:

• New England, AFC East and homefield advantage
• Kansas City, AFC West
• Baltimore, playoff spot
• N.Y. Jets, playoff spot
• Pittsburgh, playoff spot

AFC ELIMINATED:

• Buffalo
• Cincinnati
• Denver
• Cleveland
• Houston
• Miami
• Oakland
• San Diego
• Tennessee

PITTSBURGH – Clinches AFC North and a first-round bye with:

1) Win OR

2) Tie and Baltimore loss or tie OR

3) Baltimore loss

BALTIMORE – Clinches AFC North and a first-round bye with:

1) Win and Pittsburgh loss or tie OR

2) Tie and Pittsburgh loss

INDIANAPOLIS – Clinches AFC South with:

1) Win or tie OR

2) Jacksonvile loss or tie

JACKSONVILLE – Clinches AFC South with:

1) Win and Indianapolis loss