Frustrating news for Packer Fans today as embattled defensive linemen Johnny Jolly was arrested again on drug charges. Jolly, a 6th round pick by Green Bay in the ’06 draft, was still serving a one year suspension handed down by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell for similar charges dating back to a 2008 arrest.

The Packers, known as a “high-character organization,” had taken a risk in remaining in contact with Jolly during his suspension. Green Bay GM Ted Thompson had hoped to keep the star lineman out of trouble, and aid in a smooth transition back into the Pack’s roster.

This likely spells the end of Jolly’s tenure as a Packer. It will also likely put the Packers in a tough spot on the defensive line, where they are also expected to lose stellar DE Cullen Jenkins to free agency.

Johnny Jolly, 28, played in 48 games at DE  for Green Bay, amassing 113 total tackles and 77 solo tackles.

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WST Podcast (2/2/11) Part 1

Duration: 16:21

Topics:

• Story lines preceding the Super Bowl

• Is Aaron Rodgers to blame for the team photo/Twitter controversy

• Defensive Player of the Year award– Should Clay Mathews have won the award?

5 NFL teams play in true domes. They are Atlanta, New Orleans, Saint Louis, Minnesota, and Detroit. Four more teams have retractable roofs in Houston, Arizona, Indianapolis, and Dallas. Let’s regard them all as dome teams for the sake of this piece, because it’s really the playing surface that matters. Turfs and synthetic composite fields represent ideal conditions for out-of-the-gate speed, and on-a-dime cuts, two things that make the Packers offense especially dangerous. And after all, quarterback Aaron Rodgers gets to wear his favorite shoes, or so he says. But how will Aaron Rodgers stack up against Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethisberger on the turf down in Jerry’s World, Texas? My brother Chris gets the credit for this topic. He wondered how each QB fared in Domed stadiums period. I found the topic interesting enough to do a little research, and crunch a few numbers. One thing that was evident right away, is that the NFC has far more domes, and thus Aaron Rodgers has a much higher volume of dome games. But, coincidentally, In Roethlisberger’s 7 years as a starter compared to 3 years for Rodgers, both QB’s have started exactly 12 dome games including the postseason. One notable nugget is that 2 of Big Ben’s 12 dome games have been Super Bowls victories.

The first thing that I noticed after doing the math, was that Roethlisberger’s average QB rating is higher, despite being inferior to Rodgers in all relevant statistical categories. Big Ben owes this to the fact that he scored a perfect 158.3 QB rating in one of his 12 games, and also posted ratings of 147.4 and 139.8. In general, Rodgers has been more efficient, picking up more valuable yardage, throwing touchdowns and not turning the ball over. This can be said not just in domes, but really in general when comparing the two QB’s. But Roethlisberger is not a numbers guy anyway. Instead, he possesses that Favre-esque quality of refusing to go down, extending the play, and rifling the ball downfield for big gains. Unfortunately, this doesn’t always make a pretty chart.

Given this information, I see the advantage going to Green Bay. With those speedy Packers receivers traversing that perfect turf, Aaron Rodgers will be the efficient scoring machine he has proven to be in dome situations. It will be paramount for Green Bays sub-happy defense to keep Roethlisberger confused, and neutralize the down-field threat. Shrinking the field will keep Big Ben under control.

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PASSING OFFENSE: After serving a four game suspension, Ben Roethlisberger came back to have a very good season. He threw for 3200 yards in just 12 games and had a touchdown to interception ratio of 17 to 5 in the regular season. Along with his big arm, Big Ben is known for his size and toughness and is hard for defenders to bring down.

Said Clay Matthews, “Ben Roethlisberger is one of toughest QBs to sack. He’s one of those guys who will fight. He makes plays by breaking tackles.”

Last year, he shredded the Green Bay secondary for 503 yards passing and exposed some real weakness that the Packers had last year in pass defense. He was aided by a solid group of receivers led by the blazing fast Mike Wallace (60 rec, 1257 yards), ageless possession receiver Hines Ward (59 rec, 755 yards), and tight end Heath Miller (42 rec, 512 yards). Emmanuel Sanders and Antwaan Randle El are good 3rd and 4th receivers that add speed and depth to the the corps, and former Viking Mewelde Moore has emerged into a threat to catch out of the backfield as a 3rd down back.

Passing has become the strength of the Steelers’ offense. They finished  ranked 14th in the NFL in passing, but that ranking would have been significantly higher had Roethlisberger not been suspended to start the season.

• WST’s Take: This match up with the Packers’ pass defense will go a long way into deciding the winner of Super Bowl XLV. Green Bay has improved significantly in pass defense since last year’s debacle at Hines Field, and they have the speed to match the Steelers receivers. Green Bay  comes in ranked 5th in the league in pass yards given up and 2nd in interceptions. Two of Roethlisberger’s worst games this year have come against the Jets, who like the Packers have a very strong secondary and run a 3-4 defense. New York was able to get pressure on the quarterback, and it is very important for the Packers are able to get a pass rush on Big Ben (the Pack ranks 2nd in the league in sacks). Although it appears highly unlikely that the Steelers have the type of success they did last year against Green Bay, this is one of the best passing attacks the Packers have seen this year and will be a major challenge for Dom Capers.

RUSHING OFFENSE: Pittsburgh has been able to run the ball effectively when they need to. Rashard Mendenhall (324 attempts, 1,273 yards, 13 touchdowns)  is a very physical runner who is coming off a game where he was called on to run the ball 27 times for 121 yards.

He has been particularly effective in short yardage situations because of his ability to bounce off of the first defender to make contact with him. He has been used as a workhorse in games where the Steelers have struggled to pass the ball, such as the first four games of the season (when Roethlisberger was not playing) and last week against New York. In a game against Buffalo, he ran the ball 36 times for 151 yards. He has however struggled against strong run defenses such as Baltimore (he ran for only 46 yards on 20 carries in the divisional playoff game).

Second year player, Issac Redman (52 attempts, 247 yards) is another physical runner who has been used effectively to spell Mendenhall. The Steelers come into the game ranked 11th in the NFL in rush yards.

• WST’s Take: The Packers ranked 18th in the league in rush yards allowed this year, a steep drop off from last year’s number one ranking. The main reason for this is because the Packers have used their Nickel package more than any other team in football this year in order to stop the pass. This “bend, but don’t break” approach has led to more rush yards given up. Despite the mediocre ranking, Green Bay has been effective in stopping the run when they need to, and are not overly susceptible to huge games by opposing running backs. Look for Pittsburgh to run the ball often early in the game and have mixed success. If Roethlisberger struggles to find his rhythm, expect heavy doses of Mendenhall especially if the game remains close and low scoring. The Steelers may be without Pro Bowl Center Maurkice Pouncey, which could hurt their rush offense. With the largest 3-4 defensive line in the NFL (B.J. Raji, Ryan Pickett, and Howard Green), the Packers will present a challenge to the Steelers in short yardage. There may be some interesting 3rd or 4th and 1′s that will play a major role in this game.

PASS DEFENSE: No team rushes the quarterback better than the Pittsburgh Steelers. James Harrison and Lamar Woodley make up the NFL’s best outside linebacker duo (by far). Both players have at least 10 sacks on the season, and have helped the Steelers lead the league in this category.

With help from the pressure on the QB, Pittsburgh ranks in at 5th in the league in interceptions. They also have the most dynamic Safety in the league in Troy Polamolu, who is often playing in the box and blitzing. Troy is also very capable of covering receivers and tight ends as well as any safety in the league. He is one of the most valuable players to their team in the league; over the last two seasons Pittsburgh is 16-4 when Polamalu plays compared to 6-7 when he sits.

Opposite safety Ryan Clark has done and excellent job of playing center field this year, and Ike Taylor has become a very solid left corner. Although he is not a complete “shut down” corner, he is in the upper tier of corners in the league. The other side is the weaker side. Bryant McFadden has been a weak link in the Steelers secondary and has given up a very high completion percentage this season. According to STATS INC. McFadden was targeted 166 times by opposing QB’s and allowed 77 completions (66.4 percent), including five TD’s. Nickel back, William Gay has been solid but is also susceptible. Pittsburgh ranks 12th in the league in pass defense.

• WST’s Take: There is no question that the Packers think they can win the match up of their receiver corps against Pittsburgh’s secondary. The question is: Can Chad Clifton and Bryan Bulaga handle Woodley and Harrison? If the answer is no, it will be a long day for the Packers offense. If Bulaga and Clifton can hold up long enough against those two on the outside, someone will be open. Don’t be surprised to see Aaron Rodgers try to spread Pittsburgh out like against Atlanta. Look for Rodgers to try to isolate McFadden and Gay like he did against Chicago’s Tim Jennings and Atlanta’s Christopher Owens. Green Bay’s top four receivers could all have big days like against Pittsburgh. Rodgers is also the best quarterback in the league against the blitz and has done well to avoid throwing interceptions. Cowboy Stadium is a semi-roofed facility with a controlled environment, and the Packers have been able to pass very well indoors over the last few seasons.

RUN DEFENSE: The Steelers’ run defense is far and away number 1 in the league. They sit back and protect against the pass and dare teams to run the ball on them. Last week against the Jets, who came in ranked 4th in the league running the ball, Pittsburgh only gave up 70 yards rushing (they average only 62.8 yards per game given up).

They are led by nose tackle, Casey Hampton and inside linebackers Lawrence Timmons and James Farrior. One of the main reasons they are able to pressure the QB so well and intercept passes are because they are so good against the run that their opponent becomes one-dimensional.

• WST’s Take: While James Starks has had success running in the playoffs, this will be his biggest challenge of his young career. Expect the Packers to try to use the pass to set up the run, as opposed to the more conventional opposite approach. Green Bay could run into trouble if they try to ice the clock with the lead at the end of the game if they cannot run the ball.

WST Podcast 1.24.11 (Packer Section)

Duration: 16:11

Topics:

• The WiscoSportsTalk Crew is joined by Dave from SteelersDepot.com and the Terrible Podcast.

• Dave and the WST guys talk about the confidence level of the Packer and Steeler faithful.

• Dave and the guys break down the weaknesses of their respective teams.

• Predictions for the big game.

It wasn’t Aaron Rodgers’ best statistical game, but chalk it up as another road playoff victory on the growing resume’ of the young QB. Bears QB Jay Cutler played terribly, and was yanked in the third after suffering a “knee injury,” giving way to Todd Collins, perhaps the worst backup quarterback in the league. Needless to say, after a few gangly, errant throws, Collins quickly begat 3rd stringer, and rightful 2nd stringer, Caleb Hanie. Hanie’s performance was cute, but he was largely stifled by the smothering Packers defense.

With the win, the Packers are NFC Champions and have earned a Super Bowl berth for the first time since Super Bowl XXXII, a loss to the John-Elway-led Broncos. For young fans like me, whose oldest Packer memories dates back to about 94/95, the victory signifies a return to greatness. The Packers will face the Pittsburgh Steelers, who dismantled the New York Jets last night in the AFC Championship game. The Packers last played the Steelers late last season, an epic shootout that ended in heartbreak with a Ben Roethlisberger game winning touchdown pass.

GB – 10:50 – Aaron Rodgers 1 yd TD run – At the 1-yard line, the backfield resembled a short-yardage TD from last week’s divisional game, with defensive nose-tackle BJ Raji lined up as a fullback and extra blocker. But instead of a hand-off up the gut, Rodgers rolled out to the left on a play action, found the angle, and hustled to the pylon. Credit coach Mike McCarthy with some degree of trickery or reverse psychology, and a risky play-call executed to perfection. GB 7 – CHI 0

GB – 11:13 - James Starks 4 yd TD run – From four yards out, Starks pinballed his way toward the goal line, reaching out at just the right moment to break the plane of the end zone. GB 14 – CHI 0

CHI – 12:02 – Chester Taylor 1 yd TD run – After Caleb Hanie found his nerve, and consequently his throwing rhythm, the Bears found themselves 1 yard away from the score. They called upon former Viking Chester Taylor, who was acquired for just such an occasion. Simple, concise, touchdown. GB 14 – CHI 7

GB – 6:04 – BJ Raji 18 yd INT/TD – Yes, you read that right. Deep in their own territory, Bears QB Caleb Hanie tossed up a nice, fluffy loaf of bread, and a hungry BJ Raji, who had quietly backed off the line and dropped into coverage, nabbed the interception, and chugged his way to a touchdown. He then donned Rodgers’ invisible belt, and proceeded to celebrate in his own unique way. GB 21 – CHI 7

CHI – 4:43 – Earl Bennett 35 yd TD catch – Hanie delivered a well placed zinger into coverage down the near sideline, and WR Earl Bennet took care of the rest. A little delay from Bennet – not quite a stutter-step – and the WR quickly froze and shook off the Packers secondary, trotting in for the score. GB 21 – CHI 14

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Offensively, Green Bay seems to be peaking at the perfect time. It is certainly no coincidence that this surge comes with the emergence of rookie RB James Starks. Remember, Starks sat out most of the year on the PUP list. Defenses have precious little film on a back who is proving to be up to the NFL task. With Starks earning respect from the opposing defense, QB Aaron Rodgers was able to unleash an aerial onslaught that kept Atlanta guessing, and largely off-balance. Starks gained only 66 yards on 25 carries, but the workload he shouldered goes beyond those numbers. With the Falcons defense unsure of the Packers new rookie rusher, Aaron Rodgers exploited their pause to the tune of 31/36 comp/att, 366 yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 1 rushing touchdown, and 0 interceptions. Statistically, a better playoff performance cannot reasonably be achieved. The words are “Sliced” and “diced,” as Packers LB Clay Matthews quipped in a post-game interview. Rodgers was inclusive, spreading the ball out to WR’s Jennings, Nelson, Driver, and Jones for 101, 79, 76, and 75 yards respectively. Both Nelson and Jones nabbed TD catches, as did halfback/fullback, and local folk hero, John Kuhn, who rushed for a score as well. The real story here was 3rd tier man James Jones who, having struggled with slippery hands in pressure situations, came up big with skilled catches in this big game. Some credit his mysterious new gloves, which are bright yellow, shiny, and frankly look like props from Who Framed Roger Rabbit. But hey, facts are facts, and the new gloves seem to work.

Defensively, the Packers handled their business like a team on a mission. Avenging their week 12 loss to the Falcons may not have been a public motivator, but defensive coordinator Dom Capers did post some inspirational bulletin board material for the defensive squad. A Falcon player used some choice words when describing the Packers defense to a local newspaper. The word Capers emphasized was “soft.” If the opposite of soft is hard, it’s fair to say Green Bay’s defense played hard, limiting Falcons RB Michael Turner to just 39 yards. Because the Packers were able to build and sustain a lead, Turner saw the ball just 10 times, with QB Matt Ryan electing to pass more often than not. In fact, Ryan’s 20/29 comp/att, and Turner’s 10 carries for 39 yards, puts the total offensive plays for the Falcons 2 main players, at a meager 39 opportunities. The defense stood strong, and got off the field usually within 3 minutes of game time. Drive for drive, here’s how the Packers defense performed – Punt, TD, Interception, Interception, Punt, TD, Fumble, Fumble, Punt. It’s hard to argue with results. Green Bay limited Matt Ryan to just 186 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 interceptions. Both interceptions were claimed by CB Tramon Williams, who ran one back for a 70 yard pick six. The Packers held WR Roddy White to just 57 yards on 6 catches, but perhaps more importantly, they also kept TE Tony Gonzalez off the stat sheet with no meaningful yardage. Called soft, played hard.

Special teams was a nightmare. In a closer game, we’d not soon forget that Atlanta ran a kickoff back for a touchdown. This is an automatic fail. On special teams, the most basic goal for the kicking team is to keep the receiving team from scoring. Simple. On the plus side, Green Bay never punted, and punter Tim Masthay was content spending the whole game on the sideline getting a massage and a cucumber facial.

The cumulative grade for this game is a solid B. The offense is clicking, the defense is stout, but special teams made critical errors. It’s easy to ignore these mistakes when the team wins by 27 points, but it’s important to note the increased magnitude these flubs can have in the playoffs.

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WST Podcast 1.18.11 Part 1

Duration: 21:45

Topics:

• A look back at Aaron Rodgers and Packers’ perfect performance in Atlanta last Saturday.
• Packers vs Bears NFC Championship preview

• What factors are key to a Packers victory?

• What match-ups will be key?

• Is Soldier Field’s poor condition a cause for concern?

While Aaron Rodgers was lighting up the Falcons’ secondary — and the scoreboard- it might have gone unnoticed that the Packers mixed in the run quite well on Saturday night.

The numbers were by all means not eye-popping. James Starks only had 66 yards on 25 carries (2.6 yards per carry). But he ran hard and was effective. The amount of carries, 25, also shows that Mike McCarthy and company really trust Starks to be their work horse back.

The short yardage situation also saw some major improvement thanks in part to 340+ pound DT, B.J. Raji. He was used as a fullback on a John Kuhn one yard touchdown.

The commitment to the run helped give Aaron Rodgers and the Packers the ability to control the time of possession and total yards (as it further opened up the passing game). The time of possession was an unbelievable 38:19 to 21:41 in favor of the Packers. Even with a kickoff return for a touchdown by Eric Weems, that difference in time of possession is an unquestioned formula for winning.

Look for James Starks to continue to get a lot of carries against Chicago, the NFL’s second best rush defense. Atlanta came in to the game ranked 10th in rush D, showing that if the Packers get a lead, they have no problem letting Starks carry a heavy load no matter who they are playing.

If Starks finishes with 25 carries agains the Bears, it will probably be an indicator that the Packers won the game.

Howdy everyone.  Glad to be back after making an extremely long trek out to Pasadena for the Rose Bowl.  Not the best outcome, obviously, but I’ll never forget the experience.  Thanks to everyone who helped make it an incredible time.

Now, onto my picks…

Green Bay at Atlanta (Saturday, 7pm central, FOX)

Let’s be honest, it’s very hard for me to pick against the Packers.  The same goes for this week, where I expect the Packers to avenge their loss earlier this season to Atlanta with a close win on Saturday.

When these teams met on Nov.28th, it became painfully obvious that whoever had the ball last was going to win the game.  It also became obvious after the game that the Falcons had a certain advantage when it came to challenging calls on the field (I’m looking at you, Tony Gonzalez).

The Falcons are undeniably great at the Georgia Dome, where they have a boisterous crowd and a forgiving playing surface.  But this time around, the Packers have a legit run game, not the 2 yards per carry run game that Atlanta saw earlier this season.  If James Starks can carry the load like he did last week against Philly, the Packers should be able to play-action their way to the NFC Championship.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Matt Ryan will be a quarterback matchup that fans are going to hear about for the next decade, so we better get used to it.  Rodgers almost single handedly won the game for the Packers earlier this season, but I don’t see him needing to carry the load as much this time around.

Come game time, Atlanta will have had 14 days off, whereas the Packers will have only had 6.  Some might see that as an advantage for the Falcons, but I like the Packers ride their momentum from last week to a victory.

Final Score: Packers 35, Falcons 21

QB Stat Line: Rodgers: 250 yards passing, 2 TD’s, 1 INT// Ryan: 310 yards passing, 3 TD’s, 1 INT

RB Stat Line: Starks: 80 yards rushing, 1 TD// Turner: 75 yards rushing, 0 TD’s

Seattle at Chicago (Sunday, 12pm central, FOX)

Seattle is undeniably a great playoff story.  Their triumphant victory last week over New Orleans, coupled with an incredible game-ending run by Marshawn Lynch, made for incredible television.  Years from now historians and NFL Films will remember it as one of the all-time great Wild Card weekend showdowns, and Saints fans will still be grumbling about how a 7-9 team was awarded a home game.

But that’s where the improbable run will end.  Chicago’s defense is too good to allow as many points as the Saints did, and if Seattle gets down by too many on the road, they’ll simply say “at least we beat New Orleans” and head back out west.

Yes, the Seahawks did manage to beat Chicago this past October at Soldier Field, when the Bears offensive line allowed Jay Cutler to be sacked six times during the game.  Since then, the Bears o-line has vastly improved, and with a solid run game lead by Matt Forte, the Bears should be able to control the time of possession and thus, the game.

However, I don’t expect a blowout. Keep in mind that the Seahawks are still riding a very emotional high from last weekend, and they could definitely use that to their advantage if the Bears (specifically Jay Cutler) get flustered early in the game.  The way the Seahawks win this game is the same way the Bears have managed to win games the past couple seasons: force turnovers, have a few bounces go your way, and capitalize with a touchdown here and there.

Being a Packer fan, it’s difficult for me to pick the Bears in a game I so desperately would love to see them lose.  So let’s say I think Chicago will win, but I’m really pulling for Seattle.

Final Score: Bears 24, Seahawks 14

QB Stat Line: Cutler: 224 yards passing, 2 TD’s, 1 INT//Hasselbeck: 200 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT

RB Stat Line: Forte: 100 yards rushing, 1 TD//Lynch: 90 yards rushing, 1 TD

Stay tuned for my AFC Divisional Playoff predictions coming tomorrow!